Hagar hf. – Valuation as of 1 Mar 2025

Key assumptions

• Sales grow by an average of 6.2% per year over the forecast period.
• Gross margin on sales amounts to 21.5% per year over the forecast period.
• Other operating expenses relative to sales amount to 14% per year over the forecast period.
• Depreciation of operating assets, right-of-use, and intangible assets (excluding goodwill) amounts to 12% per year over the forecast period.
• Investment properties are revalued in line with the annual increase of the consumer price index—4% in the 2025/26 fiscal year, then 3% from the 2026/27 fiscal year onward for the remainder of the forecast period.
• Average cost of interest‐bearing debt is 9% in 2025/26, then 7% from 2026/27 onward, corresponding to 4% real interest, with financing mostly in ISK.
• Return on equity of accounted stakes in associated companies is projected at 15% per year.
• Income tax amounts to 20% per year over the forecast period and is calculated on profit excluding the results of associates.
• The ratio of sales to the book value of operating assets, right-of-use, and intangible assets (excluding goodwill) averages 4.0 over the forecast period. Investment therefore equals 4% of sales per year on average, and 4.2% in the latter part of the period.
• Dividends amount to 23.4% of total prior-year comprehensive income in 2025/26, and then 70%, with the equity ratio at 39.4% at the end of the forecast period.
• Terminal growth at the end of the forecast period is 4.5%, corresponding to 1.5% real growth.
• See other general assumptions under “Valuation.
• A nominal required return on equity of 10% is assumed when discounting the forecasted results for 2025/26–2034/35.

Results

• Based on the above assumptions, the estimated share value is ISK 92.4 as of 1 March 2025.