Eimskipafélag Íslands hf. – Valuation as of 1 Jan 2025

Key assumptions

• Operating revenues grow by 6.5% in 2025 and then by 5.5% per year over the forecast period.
• EBITDA amounts to 13% during the forecast period.
• Depreciation of operating assets, right-of-use assets, and intangible assets (excluding goodwill) amounts to 16.5% per year during the forecast period.
• The average cost of interest-bearing debt is 5.6% per year during the forecast period, with most financing in EUR.
• Return on the book value of equity holdings in associates amounts to 15% per year during the forecast period.
• Income tax amounts to 20% per year during the forecast period and is calculated on profit after deducting the profit from associates.
• Investment in operating assets, right-of-use assets, and intangible assets follows revenue growth and corresponds to investment equal to 10% of operating revenues per year.
• Dividend payments amount to 47% of the owners’ total comprehensive income from the previous year in 2025, and then 65% for the rest of the forecast period. An equity ratio of around 45% is assumed.
• Terminal growth at the end of the forecast period is 4.5%, or 1.5% real growth.
• See other general assumptions under “Valuation”.

Results

• Based on the above assumptions, the estimated share value is ISK 422.7 as of 1 January 2025 (EUR 1 = ISK 144).