Hagar hf. – Valuation as of 1 Mar 2026

Valuation Summary

• The value per share as of 1 March 2026 is estimated at ISK 100.5.
• The valuation is based on a ten-year forecast using the residual income method, with a 10% nominal required return on equity and a 4.5% terminal growth rate (1.5% real).
• The increase in value from the prior valuation is primarily attributable to 2025 performance.

Key Assumptions

• Revenue grows by an average of 5.7% per year (2.5% real).
• Gross margin is 24% in the early years, declining to 23% thereafter.
• Other operating expenses amount to 16% of revenue.
• Depreciation of operating assets, right-of-use assets, and intangible assets (excluding goodwill) averages 12% per year.
• Investment properties are revalued in line with CPI growth of 3–4%.
• The average cost of debt is 6.8%, with financing in ISK and DKK.
• Associates deliver a 17% return on the book value of their equity stake and pay out about 70% of earnings as dividends.
• Income tax is 20%, calculated on profit excluding the share of results from associates.
• The ratio of revenue to the book value of operating assets, right-of-use assets, and intangible assets (excluding goodwill) averages 4.0 over the forecast period.
• Capital expenditures averages 3.8% of revenue.
• Dividend payments amount to 42.6% of prior year total comprehensive income in 2026/27, increasing to 80% thereafter.
• The equity ratio averages 39% over the forecast period.
• Other general assumptions are presented under “Valuation”.