Nova Klúbburinn hf. – Valuation as of 1 Jan 2025

Key assumptions

• Sales grow by an average of 4.5% per year during the forecast period.
• Earnings before depreciation, EBITDA, average 29.5% per year during the forecast period.
• Depreciation of operating assets, right-of-use, and intangible assets (excluding goodwill) amounts to 22.5% per year during the forecast period.
• Average cost of interest-bearing debt per year is 6.2% during the forecast period, incl. lease liabilities; financing is in ISK.
• Income tax amounts to 20% per year during the forecast period.
• Invested capital in operating assets, right-of-use assets, and intangible assets (excluding goodwill) decreases slightly at the beginning of the forecast period but otherwise follows revenue growth. Investment as a proportion of operating revenues averages 17.6% per year; excluding right-of-use assets it equals 12.4%.
• Dividends amount to 37.2% of the previous year’s total comprehensive income in 2025 and thereafter 90%. The equity ratio is 43.5% at the end of the forecast period.
• Terminal growth at the end of the forecast period is 4.0%, which corresponds to 1.0% real growth.
• See other general assumptions under “Valuation.”
• A nominal required return on equity of 10% is assumed when discounting the forecasted results for 2025–2034.

Results

• Based on the above assumptions, the estimated share value is ISK 4.1 as of 1 January 2025.